I’ve never been happier to be wrong

During the week following my last post, the UK’s Covid-19 death rate was actually between 700 and 900, not between 900 and 1300 as my model predicted. (It is still very high of course.)

A possible reason emerged when the government changed their Covid-19 dashboard. It is now at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/. On the new site they explain that the daily cases previously published were often several days late in being reported. On the new dashboard, they now attach the cases to the date when the patient was actually tested. This means they regularly add new cases to dates already passed and published (and that therefore the numbers for the past 5 days should be considered incomplete).

If you’re interested, I re-ran the model using the new data. There is still a similar correlation (this time to 8 days previously, not 7). But, because the last 5 days are not complete, it’s not possible to attempt a prediction for further ahead than 3 days.

As you can see from the chart below, the prediction for the next three days is that the death rate will remain about the same. We will see. Hopefully, it will be much lower than this. Of course, if the UK’s testing regime were to improve drastically (as everyone is calling for) the case-rate would increase significantly, without a corresponding increase in fatalities.