Looking at the UK Covid-19 numbers, the daily death rate seems to lag the daily cases, which makes total sense. I wondered what the lag was and generated the chart below which shows the best correlation between the two is when the delay is 7 days. In other words, the ups and downs in both the death-rate and the case-rate match each other best when the case-rate is shifted back by 7 days.
Then I looked at the relationship between the death rate on any particular day and the new cases from 7 days before. There seems to be a clear linear fit:
So, roughly speaking, the daily death rate can be estimated by taking the case-rate from 7 days before and multiplying by 0.23. Using the relationship above gives the following prediction for the next week:
Conclusion: If this is simplistic model turns out to be close to the truth, we should brace ourselves for a death-date between 900 and 1300 for the next week.
Caveat: I am no expert on this. I just got curious about the numbers. Those modelling the pandemic will be creating much better predictions.
P.S. Log scale: Below is the same chart on a ‘log’ scale (which emphasises the multiplication rate rather than the increase rate). You can see the hopeful “flattening of the curve”. But don’t forget this is not the accumulation — we are adding this number of deaths each day so of course we are desperate for it to come down fast not just stay flat.